BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainShorebirds

Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.5 (95% range 2.2–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.5 (95% range 2.2–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.72.59.0
20265.72.49.0
20275.62.38.9
20285.62.38.8
20295.52.28.8

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PittsfieldOHIO262024
LucerneOHIO242024
HiramOHIO242021
WaylandOHIO162017
GarrettsvileOHIO151991
RomulusNEW-YORK132000
HebronOHIO132024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA132024
OrleansNEW-YORK122024
PeruOHIO121978
MaysvilleOHIO122012
E YoungstownNEW-YORK112023
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK112024
ByronNEW-YORK102024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA101979
New SomersetOHIO91993
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA92024
WatertownNEW-YORK82012
Alder CreekNEW-YORK82004
WaddingtonNEW-YORK81998
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA82023
MacdougallNEW-YORK72024
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018
OneidaNEW-YORK72010
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.