BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainShorebirds

Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.4 (95% range 2.1–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.4 (95% range 2.1–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.72.48.9
20275.62.38.9
20285.52.38.8
20295.52.28.7
20305.42.18.7

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Killdeer in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK262025
PittsfieldOHIO262024
MacdougallNEW-YORK192025
E YoungstownNEW-YORK162025
WaylandOHIO162017
GarrettsvileOHIO151991
RomulusNEW-YORK132000
LucerneOHIO132025
PeruOHIO121978
MaysvilleOHIO122012
HiramOHIO112025
Valley CityOHIO112025
OrleansNEW-YORK102025
LattasburgOHIO102025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA102025
CloverPENNSYLVANIA102025
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA101979
New SomersetOHIO91993
WatertownNEW-YORK82012
Alder CreekNEW-YORK82004
WaddingtonNEW-YORK81998
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK72025
CastileNEW-YORK72025
SheridanNEW-YORK72025
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.