BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieShorebirds

Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 2.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 2.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026102.418
2027102.418
2028102.418
2029102.418
2030102.519

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KaplanLOUISIANA242023
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA242011
Bayside 2TEXAS232004
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA212025
MauriceLOUISIANA192024
StowellTEXAS192025
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA182011
Vinton 2LOUISIANA132025
WinnieTEXAS122025
Forked IslandLOUISIANA112025
Loyola BeachTEXAS112009
JuniorLOUISIANA101991
RichardLOUISIANA102025
Grand IsleLOUISIANA102019
WoodlawnLOUISIANA102021
McfaddinTEXAS102016
EstherLOUISIANA72025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA62019
DanburyTEXAS62025
Bayside 3TEXAS62025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA52025
ChinquapinTEXAS52025
BaysideTEXAS52010
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA42008
KatyTEXAS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.