BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieShorebirds

Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 136% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 2.8–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+136%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 136% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 2.8–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025112.619
2026112.719
2027112.719
2028112.719
2029112.819

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Killdeer in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KaplanLOUISIANA242023
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA242011
Bayside 2TEXAS232004
MauriceLOUISIANA192024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA182011
Loyola BeachTEXAS112009
JuniorLOUISIANA101991
Grand IsleLOUISIANA102019
WoodlawnLOUISIANA102021
Oyster LakeTEXAS102024
McfaddinTEXAS102016
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA92024
StowellTEXAS92023
Vinton 2LOUISIANA82024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA62019
RichardLOUISIANA52024
WinnieTEXAS52024
BaysideTEXAS52010
EstherLOUISIANA42024
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA42008
Forked IslandLOUISIANA42024
Hinkles FerTEXAS42023
DanburyTEXAS42024
Port AcresTEXAS42024
Bayside 3TEXAS42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.