BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsShorebirds

Killdeer in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.6–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.6–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.63.67.7
20265.63.67.7
20275.73.67.7
20285.73.67.7
20295.73.67.8

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Killdeer in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA462023
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS382024
NewberryINDIANA322024
CyprssINDIANA242024
CumbackINDIANA232021
WashingtonINDIANA222024
BrazilINDIANA172024
MerrimacKENTUCKY162024
Carter GroveALABAMA152023
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY152023
YorkILLINOIS142024
BirdsILLINOIS132024
ScottsburgINDIANA132024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY132024
GoshenKENTUCKY121999
Cole CampMISSOURI121990
CollinwoodTENNESSEE122024
AzaliaINDIANA112024
CorydonINDIANA112024
Cross PlainsINDIANA112024
KeysburgKENTUCKY112024
MillionKENTUCKY111986
MorganfieldKENTUCKY112024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY102019
RoyaltonILLINOIS92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.