BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertShorebirds

Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.860.001.8
20260.860.001.8
20270.870.001.8
20280.870.001.8
20290.870.001.8

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO222024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO72024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO61977
MesillaNEW-MEXICO52000
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS42009
RoswellNEW-MEXICO32019
DemingNEW-MEXICO31975
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO32019
Bear MtnTEXAS32005
JornadaNEW-MEXICO21982
RodeoNEW-MEXICO22017
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22022
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22007
ShafterTEXAS21985
Devils R CynTEXAS21997
CanutilloTEXAS22024
Ft. DavisTEXAS22019
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12006
GageNEW-MEXICO12024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12008
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12016
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12014
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12023
PinonNEW-MEXICO12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.