BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertShorebirds

Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+61%Since 1970
50Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Killdeer has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029
0.87Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.895% range
±93.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.860.001.8
20260.860.001.8
20270.870.001.8
20280.870.001.8
20290.870.001.8

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert.
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO222024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO72024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO61977
MesillaNEW-MEXICO52000
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS42009
RoswellNEW-MEXICO32019
DemingNEW-MEXICO31975
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO32019
Bear MtnTEXAS32005
JornadaNEW-MEXICO21982
RodeoNEW-MEXICO22017
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22022
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22007
ShafterTEXAS21985
Devils R CynTEXAS21997
CanutilloTEXAS22024
Ft. DavisTEXAS22019
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12006
GageNEW-MEXICO12024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12008
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12016
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12014
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12023
PinonNEW-MEXICO12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.