BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertShorebirds

Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.850.001.7
20270.850.001.7
20280.850.001.7
20290.850.001.7
20300.850.001.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Killdeer in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO61977
MesillaNEW-MEXICO52000
Coyanda DrawTEXAS52025
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO42025
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS42009
DemingNEW-MEXICO31975
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO32019
Bear MtnTEXAS32005
GageNEW-MEXICO22025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO21982
RodeoNEW-MEXICO22017
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22025
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22007
ShafterTEXAS21985
Devils R CynTEXAS21997
CanutilloTEXAS22024
Ft. DavisTEXAS22019
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12006
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12025
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12008
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12016
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.