BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.62–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.62–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.71.18.3
20264.61.08.2
20274.50.888.1
20284.30.757.9
20294.20.627.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA632015
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA432015
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA432015
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA312015
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA312015
HighlightWYOMING252007
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA242011
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA232024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA212018
DwyerWYOMING202019
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA192023
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA182024
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA162019
ShawmutMONTANA152024
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA152024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA152011
Wheat BasinMONTANA142024
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA142024
ClarkelenWYOMING141978
PineyWYOMING131990
Two DotMONTANA122024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA122024
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA122019
HighwoodMONTANA112024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.