BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.65–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.65–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.81.28.4
20274.61.08.2
20284.50.908.1
20294.40.788.0
20304.20.657.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Killdeer in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA632015
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA432015
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA432015
DwyerWYOMING322025
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA312015
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA312015
HighlightWYOMING252007
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA242011
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA242025
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA232025
RozetWYOMING192025
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA162025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA162025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA162025
UptonWYOMING162025
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA152011
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA142025
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA142025
WyarnoWYOMING142025
ClarkelenWYOMING141978
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA132025
Soda WellWYOMING132025
PineyWYOMING131990
ShawmutMONTANA122025
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA122019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.