BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyShorebirds

Killdeer in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+319%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171223
2026181223
2027181323
2028181323
2029181324

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Killdeer in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DellARKANSAS712024
WilsonARKANSAS502024
KelsoARKANSAS482016
UlmARKANSAS472024
LafeARKANSAS362022
WhittonARKANSAS341991
PawpawTENNESSEE332012
HaytiMISSOURI312021
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI282024
CommerceMISSISSIPPI231993
KennettMISSOURI232024
West TylerARKANSAS221984
DeventerMISSOURI212024
IsolaMISSISSIPPI202022
MaynardARKANSAS192024
TippoMISSISSIPPI192024
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS162022
Augusta 2ARKANSAS162016
River RoadLOUISIANA162024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI162024
CarlisleLOUISIANA151988
BrousvilleLOUISIANA142024
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI142011
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI142018
HughesARKANSAS132023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.