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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyShorebirds

Killdeer in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+301%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171223
2027171223
2028181223
2029181223
2030181323

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Killdeer in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KelsoARKANSAS482016
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA422025
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI392025
LafeARKANSAS362022
WhittonARKANSAS341991
WilsonARKANSAS342025
DellARKANSAS332025
PawpawTENNESSEE332012
HaytiMISSOURI312021
DeventerMISSOURI292025
BlodgettMISSOURI292025
UlmARKANSAS282025
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE242025
River RoadLOUISIANA232025
CommerceMISSISSIPPI231993
West TylerARKANSAS221984
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI212025
IsolaMISSISSIPPI202022
TippoMISSISSIPPI172025
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS162022
Augusta 2ARKANSAS162016
CarlisleLOUISIANA151988
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI142011
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI142018
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI132025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.