BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaShorebirds

Killdeer in Sierra Nevada has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-88%Since 1971
25Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Killdeer has collapsed in Sierra Nevada: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9795% range
±105.3%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.97
20260.000.000.97
20270.000.000.97
20280.000.000.97
20290.000.000.97

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Killdeer in Sierra Nevada.
ChilcootCALIFORNIA52024
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22010
SattleyCALIFORNIA22019
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22017
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12023
WestvilleCALIFORNIA11971
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11969
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12010
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12006
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12003
Silver CityCALIFORNIA11981
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA11980
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA11974
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA12000
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12023
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA12017
RivertonCALIFORNIA11998
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA12016
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA12003
GoumazCALIFORNIA12010
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12021
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12016
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA12023
Forest HillCALIFORNIA12003
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.