BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaShorebirds

Killdeer in Sierra Nevada has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-88%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has collapsed in Sierra Nevada: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Killdeer In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.97
20260.000.000.97
20270.000.000.97
20280.000.000.97
20290.000.000.97

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Killdeer in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChilcootCALIFORNIA52024
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22010
SattleyCALIFORNIA22019
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22017
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12023
WestvilleCALIFORNIA11971
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11969
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12010
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12006
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12003
Silver CityCALIFORNIA11981
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA11980
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA11974
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA12000
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12023
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA12017
RivertonCALIFORNIA11998
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA12016
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA12003
GoumazCALIFORNIA12010
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12021
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12016
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA12023
Forest HillCALIFORNIA12003
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.