BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasShorebirds

Killdeer in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.550.001.6
20260.510.001.5
20270.460.001.5
20280.410.001.4
20290.370.001.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Killdeer in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SandbluffOKLAHOMA141995
ChandlerTEXAS132004
CypressLOUISIANA91987
CanadianOKLAHOMA92017
MatoyOKLAHOMA92000
McalesterOKLAHOMA81991
LockesburgARKANSAS72018
FillmoreLOUISIANA71989
De RidderLOUISIANA62019
Union HillTEXAS62022
DerryLOUISIANA51988
Mer RougeLOUISIANA52008
MortonTEXAS52024
Neches BithTEXAS52017
AshdownARKANSAS42023
TroutLOUISIANA42024
NatchitochesLOUISIANA41991
Lake CoveLOUISIANA42018
IndianolaOKLAHOMA42024
EastonTEXAS42013
Lance Rosier BithTEXAS42019
Old MiloARKANSAS32014
BlakelyARKANSAS31999
Fort PolkLOUISIANA31975
LongstreetLOUISIANA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.