BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesShorebirds

Killdeer in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±170.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.00.006.1
20262.90.006.1
20272.90.006.0
20282.80.005.9
20292.70.005.8

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Killdeer in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RhomeTEXAS212024
Wolfe CityTEXAS131987
E GeorgetownTEXAS121979
Thornton 2TEXAS112010
ThorntonTEXAS91983
OlneyTEXAS92024
Wills PointTEXAS92016
GainesvilleTEXAS82024
LocoOKLAHOMA71985
SchroederTEXAS71994
BriteTEXAS72024
MegargelTEXAS72024
MuldoonTEXAS62024
LockhartTEXAS62024
CreedmoreTEXAS62014
TatumsOKLAHOMA52022
DuncanOKLAHOMA52024
HobsonTEXAS52024
WeatherfordTEXAS52024
CarlosTEXAS52024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA42024
GauseTEXAS41997
Peach CreekTEXAS41992
DikeTEXAS42018
CayugaTEXAS42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.