BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalShorebirds

Killdeer in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±677.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±677.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±677.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.1
20260.000.001.1
20270.000.001.1
20280.000.001.1
20290.000.001.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Killdeer in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mormon LakeARIZONA71975
WilliamsARIZONA42011
SunizonaARIZONA31997
Clay SpringARIZONA32024
PomereneARIZONA22022
PatagoniaARIZONA22024
MaineARIZONA21995
PinetopARIZONA21994
Happy JackARIZONA22016
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO22017
FlagstaffARIZONA12010
PrescottARIZONA12011
BlueARIZONA11989
San SimonARIZONA12014
Peña BlancaARIZONA11995
Skull ValleyARIZONA12023
Bartlett ResARIZONA12015
CutterARIZONA11996
AlpineARIZONA12018
RedingtonARIZONA11994
AmadoARIZONA12023
McnealARIZONA12017
Carr MtnARIZONA12011
PortalARIZONA12004
ReserveNEW-MEXICO11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.