BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalShorebirds

Killdeer in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-93%Since 1970
26Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Killdeer has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±677.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.195% range
±677.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.001.1
20260.000.001.1
20270.000.001.1
20280.000.001.1
20290.000.001.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Killdeer in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Mormon LakeARIZONA71975
WilliamsARIZONA42011
SunizonaARIZONA31997
Clay SpringARIZONA32024
PomereneARIZONA22022
PatagoniaARIZONA22024
MaineARIZONA21995
PinetopARIZONA21994
Happy JackARIZONA22016
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO22017
FlagstaffARIZONA12010
PrescottARIZONA12011
BlueARIZONA11989
San SimonARIZONA12014
Peña BlancaARIZONA11995
Skull ValleyARIZONA12023
Bartlett ResARIZONA12015
CutterARIZONA11996
AlpineARIZONA12018
RedingtonARIZONA11994
AmadoARIZONA12023
McnealARIZONA12017
Carr MtnARIZONA12011
PortalARIZONA12004
ReserveNEW-MEXICO11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.