BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Analysis

PhasianidaeGame birdsTympanuchus cupido

Greater Prairie-Chicken has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Greater Prairie-Chicken

The Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido) is a North American member of the Pheasants, Grouse & Turkeys (Phasianidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the game birds.

Size
12–47 in long (30–120 cm) — a ground-dwelling game bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Fields, brushland, prairie and the forest floor, where it forages and nests on the ground.
Diet
Seeds, grain, buds, leaves and insects gathered on the ground.
Range
Recorded on 116 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 10 states, most concentrated in the Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Family
Phasianidae · Game birds

Notable Greater Prairie-Chicken TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Prairie-Chicken. See the full index history below.

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.010.10
20270.050.010.10
20280.050.010.10
20290.050.010.10
20300.050.010.10

Where the Greater Prairie-Chicken Is Detected

BBS routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken, sized by most recent count.

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend by State

Greater Prairie-Chicken population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Colorado+81%19883
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a1
Kansas+39%197029
Minnesota-47%198210
Missouri-79%19745
Nebraska+336%196942
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a2
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a4
South Dakota+125%197516
Wisconsin-41%19784

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Greater Prairie-Chicken population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes+448%197022
Badlands and Prairies+108%20019
Shortgrass Prairie+211%19866
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+413%196948
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-89%196922
Prairie Hardwood Transition-37%19784

Greater Prairie-Chicken Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 27% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.