BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Prairie-Chicken In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

+273%Since 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Prairie-Chicken has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

Greater Prairie-Chicken In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19972029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.62
20260.290.000.63
20270.300.000.63
20280.310.000.64
20290.320.000.65

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA292022
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA252011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA171997
CrookstonNEBRASKA142024
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA12024
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA12011
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA12024
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA12023
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.