BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Prairie-Chicken In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 501% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+501%Since 1986
6Routes In Region
31Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Greater Prairie-Chicken has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 501% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028
0.16Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.7595% range
±75.3%Backtest error
19792028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.160.000.76
20250.160.000.76
20260.160.000.76
20270.160.000.75
20280.160.000.75

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Shortgrass Prairie.
WinonaKANSAS222018
PaxtonNEBRASKA72016
AbarrCOLORADO22023
PinneoCOLORADO12016
WaverlyCOLORADO12012
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.