BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Prairie-Chicken In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Prairie-Chicken has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Greater Prairie-Chicken In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±686%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±686%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±686%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.36
20240.000.000.36
20250.000.000.36
20260.000.000.36
20270.000.000.36

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WrefordKANSAS112014
LincolnvilleKANSAS102019
OlsburgKANSAS92008
LongtonKANSAS82000
ReeceKANSAS52015
GalesburgKANSAS41978
SenecaKANSAS41972
LaplandKANSAS32010
MelroseKANSAS21977
OhioMISSOURI21994
RockinghamMISSOURI21996
WelchOKLAHOMA21975
OlneyILLINOIS11967
ThrallKANSAS11968
DoverKANSAS11984
BarclayKANSAS12022
GrantvilleKANSAS11995
Trading PostKANSAS12011
JohnsonNEBRASKA12016
PeoriaOKLAHOMA11969
CollinsvilleOKLAHOMA11992
ForakerOKLAHOMA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.