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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Missouri has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-79%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Prairie-Chicken Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Prairie-Chicken has collapsed in Missouri: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2001, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2001 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±146.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2001, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722001
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
19970.190.001.3
19980.150.001.3
19990.120.001.3
20000.090.001.2
20010.060.001.2

Greater Prairie-Chicken Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reeds1719951983
Sedalia419921991
Ohio219941972
Rockingham219961996
Cole Camp119851983

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoiskansasminnesotanebraskanorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.