BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGrassland birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Colorado has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+81%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Prairie-Chicken Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Prairie-Chicken has surged in Colorado: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.63
20250.030.000.63
20260.030.000.62
20270.020.000.61
20280.010.000.61

Greater Prairie-Chicken Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abarr220231985
Waverly120121988
Pinneo120162010

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Other States

illinoiskansasminnesotamissourinebraskanorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.