BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Minnesota has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-46%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Prairie-Chicken Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Prairie-Chicken in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Minnesota is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±196.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Minnesota is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.34
20260.090.000.34
20270.090.000.34
20280.090.000.34
20290.090.000.34

Greater Prairie-Chicken Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glyndon420241996
Oklee320042004
Beltrami320242000
Wylie320092008
Lockhart120222008
Erie120071992
Grygla119811981
Badger120032003
Backus119991980
Pine River119901985

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoiskansasmissourinebraskanorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.