BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGame birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Nebraska has surged: up 336% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+336%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Prairie-Chicken Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Prairie-Chicken has surged in Nebraska: up 336% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Nebraska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.67–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Nebraska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.67–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.534.2
20272.40.564.2
20282.40.604.3
20292.50.634.3
20302.50.674.3

Greater Prairie-Chicken Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sumner4120251987
Bartlett3119721967
Swan Lake2420251969
Chambers2320232023
Sparta2220251986
Eagle Creek2020251967
Benkelman1920251998
Wheeler Co1620251978
Midway1320251967
Bartley1220221995
Mullen1220231993
Stratton1120161977
Red Cloud1020242018
Liberty919721970
Berwyn 2920252014
Brady820152015
Kearney720241998
Paxton720161979
Liberty 2720052004
Tilden620252019
Crookston520252018
Crescent Lk420252025
Piester Lake320211998
Gordon320162006
Brownlee320191992

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoiskansasminnesotamissourinorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.