BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Kansas has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+114%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Prairie-Chicken Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Prairie-Chicken has surged in Kansas: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1274.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1274.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1274.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.800.002.6
20240.800.002.6
20250.800.002.6
20260.810.002.6
20270.810.002.6

Greater Prairie-Chicken Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winona2220182002
Minneapolis1720191967
Covert1320131994
Wreford1120141967
Lincolnville1020192002
Olsburg920082001
Longton820001994
Gove720131992
Susank620092002
Phillipsburg520121991
Reece520152009
Damar520122000
Galesburg419781978
Seneca419721972
Beloit 2420152014
Lapland320101974
Rexford320062001
Solomon320101989
Melrose219771977
Leoville220132001
Jewell219961993
Thrall119681967
Dover119841968
Barclay120221968
Kanopolis120121970

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.