BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in South Dakota has surged: up 759% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+759%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Prairie-Chicken Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Prairie-Chicken has surged in South Dakota: up 758% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in South Dakota is projected to rise about 326% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+326%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in South Dakota is projected to rise about 326% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.000.86
20260.370.000.87
20270.380.000.88
20280.380.000.88
20290.390.000.89

Greater Prairie-Chicken Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ottumwa2920222005
Rosebud2520112011
Ft Thompson1719971997
Raymond620082005
Geddes220021974
Lane 2220082000
Forbes219811981
Cedar Pass120112011
Fort Pierre120242008
Howard119811981
White Lake119751975
Winner120242004
Hayes120232001
Volga119711971
Lacreek120002000
Crow Creek120192007

Greater Prairie-Chicken Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoiskansasminnesotamissourinebraskanorth-dakotaoklahomawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.