BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Prairie-Chicken In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 430% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+430%Since 1970
22Routes In Region
40Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Greater Prairie-Chicken has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 430% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.03–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029
0.36Projected 2029 index
0.03–0.6995% range
±65.7%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.330.000.66
20260.340.010.67
20270.340.010.68
20280.350.020.68
20290.360.030.69

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Prairie Potholes.
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA142024
TildenNEBRASKA92024
MidwayNEBRASKA82023
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA62008
GlyndonMINNESOTA42024
SpartaNEBRASKA42021
OkleeMINNESOTA32004
BeltramiMINNESOTA32024
WylieMINNESOTA32009
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA31970
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA22002
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA21981
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA22008
ErieMINNESOTA12007
GryglaMINNESOTA11981
BadgerMINNESOTA12003
LockhartMINNESOTA12022
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA11987
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA11981
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA11975
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA11971
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.