BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Prairie-Chicken In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGame birds

Greater Prairie-Chicken in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 448% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+448%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Prairie-Chicken has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 448% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Greater Prairie-Chicken In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.93 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.04–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Prairie-Chicken in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.93 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.04–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.010.76
20270.390.020.77
20280.400.030.77
20290.410.040.78
20300.410.040.79

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Greater Prairie-Chicken in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaNEBRASKA222025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA202025
MidwayNEBRASKA132025
LockhartMINNESOTA62025
TildenNEBRASKA62025
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA62008
GlyndonMINNESOTA42024
OkleeMINNESOTA32004
WylieMINNESOTA32009
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA31970
BeltramiMINNESOTA22025
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA22002
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA21981
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA22008
ErieMINNESOTA12007
GryglaMINNESOTA11981
BadgerMINNESOTA12003
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA11987
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA11981
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA11975
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA11971
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.