Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Analysis

ParulidaeForest birdsMniotilta varia

Black-and-white Warbler has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the Black-and-white Warbler

The Black-and-white Warbler (Mniotilta varia) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,514 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 36 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Black-and-white Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler. See the full index history below.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.54–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.54–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.720.540.91
20270.730.540.91
20280.730.540.91
20290.730.540.91
20300.730.540.91

Where the Black-and-white Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Black-and-white Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend by State

Black-and-white Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+2%196869
Arkansas+95%196950
Californiainsufficient datan/a1
Connecticut-28%196820
Delaware-52%196812
Georgia+485%196855
Illinois-82%19709
Indiana-55%198113
Kansasinsufficient datan/a3
Kentucky-26%196845
Louisiana+40%196936
Maine+148%196877
Maryland-6%196859
Massachusetts+36%196832
Michigan+414%196875
Minnesota+527%196951
Mississippi+270%196841
Missouri+156%197549
Nebraska-76%19826
New Hampshire-8%196826
New Jersey+84%196835
New York+81%1968108
North Carolina+189%196984
North Dakota+819%197210
Ohio+600%197037
Oklahoma+480%196940
Pennsylvania+243%1968112
Rhode Island+53%19685
South Carolina+685%196825
Tennessee-6%196844
Texas+153%196955
Vermont+158%196826
Virginia+86%196873
West Virginia+63%196860
Wisconsin+297%196869
Wyominginsufficient datan/a2

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Black-and-white Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes+497%198115
Boreal Hardwood Transition+368%1968125
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+164%196854
Atlantic Northern Forest+87%1968155
Badlands and Prairies-67%19836
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+19%199813
Edwards Plateau11×198510
Oaks and Prairies+226%197333
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-64%197033
Prairie Hardwood Transition+302%196865
Central Hardwoods+44%1968111
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+67%196998
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+42%197017
Southeastern Coastal Plain+451%1968154
Appalachian Mountains+80%1968373
Piedmont+680%1968111
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+5%1968138

Black-and-white Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 29% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.