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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+189%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in North Carolina is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.71–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in North Carolina is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.71–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.672.2
20271.40.682.2
20281.40.692.2
20291.50.702.2
20301.50.712.2

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
French Broad River1420252001
Waterville1120251994
Highlands1020251994
Kyle1020241994
Brevard920251968
California 2820252014
Linville720251976
Fontana620251968
Cullowhee620251974
Oteen520241976
Murphy520241996
Rheasville520172010
Table Rock520221994
Andrews519981994
Chowan River520062002
Cherokee520252011
Jamesville420251983
Washington420252001
Spring Hope420252002
Arcola320251971
Youngsville320251968
Lloyd Xroads320241992
Monticello320081991
Todd320251995
Dismal Swamp320181993

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.