BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+157%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in North Carolina is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.67–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in North Carolina is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.67–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.632.1
20261.40.642.1
20271.40.652.2
20281.40.662.2
20291.40.672.2

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
French Broad River1520242001
Kyle1020241994
Cullowhee920241974
California 2820242014
Fontana720241968
Cherokee720242011
Brevard620241968
Jamesville620241983
Oteen520241976
Murphy520241996
Rheasville520172010
Table Rock520221994
Andrews519981994
Washington520242001
Chowan River520062002
Youngsville420241968
Linville420241976
Gupton420242001
Waterville420241994
Highlands420241994
Arcola320241971
Lloyd Xroads320241992
Monticello320081991
Raeford320161991
Dismal Swamp320181993

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.