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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.92–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.92–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.842.7
20261.80.862.7
20271.80.882.7
20281.80.902.7
20291.80.922.8

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Mtn.2120241996
Truhart1120241996
Isom820241969
Walkers820231992
Front Royal720241993
Mountain Lk.720181992
Big Meadows720241993
Brandon720241994
Bald Knob620241992
Mannboro620241967
Marion619821976
Rural Retrt520241982
Covington520241966
Loft Mtn520231993
W Augusta420241967
Branchville420241966
Iron Mountain 2420132012
Gr North Mtn420241993
Newville420241990
Putnam320211969
Clinchport319751967
Iron Mountain 3320232014
Dismal Swamp320161992
Shenandoa Np320241994
Carters Brdg 2320242016

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.