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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.98–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.98–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.902.7
20271.80.922.8
20281.90.942.8
20291.90.962.8
20301.90.982.8

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brandon1220251994
Truhart1120241996
Big Meadows1120251993
Shenandoa Np920251994
Isom820241969
Rural Retrt820251982
Walkers820231992
Nat Tunnel720251981
Pine Mtn.720251996
Mountain Lk.720181992
Covington620251966
Mannboro620251967
Church Road620251966
Marion619821976
Saltville620251969
Loft Mtn520231993
W Augusta420251967
Bald Knob420251992
Putnam420251969
Branchville420241966
Iron Mountain 2420132012
Gr North Mtn420251993
Newville420241990
Clinchport319751967
Front Royal320251993

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.