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Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Indiana has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-57%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has fallen sharply in Indiana: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Indiana is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Indiana is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.06
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06
20280.020.000.06
20290.020.000.05

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hoosier220241995
Clear Spring220051981
Cumback119951995
Kewanna119991999
New Phila120091982
Packertown119921992
Corydon119911968
Vevay120011976
Indiana Dune120142014
Thorntown119931993
Belmont120221981
Newberry120002000
Brookville120242024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.