BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Arkansas has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Arkansas: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.3–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.3–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.42.14.7
20273.42.24.7
20283.52.24.8
20293.52.24.8
20303.52.34.8

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nance1820251992
Ozark Nf1420251991
Waldron1120251967
Compton820221968
Blakely719991968
Rupert520241967
Coal Hill520231980
Springhill520212010
Rudy520252011
Hollywood420241967
Hatfield 2420252017
Marshall420212011
Four Lakes420011994
Locust Bayou320231967
Crowley'S Ridge320252011
Sims320252010
Magazine Mtn320251993
Boston Mtn.320251994
Princeton320211998
Crows219911967
Poyen220071967
Stark220251967
Lurton220171967
Zion220251972
Fulton220251968

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.