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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Wisconsin has surged: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+262%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Wisconsin: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.8–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.8–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.73.1
20262.41.73.1
20272.41.83.1
20282.51.83.2
20292.51.83.2

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mellen1820241998
Weirgor Springs1420241999
Cavour1320241998
Flambeau1320241998
Iron River1220241970
Amnicon Falls1220241998
Amberg1020241980
Mather1020231966
Grand View920241971
Bayfield920241967
Pigeon Creek920241999
Wausaukee920241980
Minong820241967
Hollister820241967
Shanagolden720241969
Union Twp720241977
Popple River720241967
Cumberland620241969
Merrill620241966
Irma620241967
Eagle River620241966
Land O' Lakes 2620242017
Hatfield519981970
Chaffey420241966
Land O Lakes420161967

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.