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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Wisconsin has surged: up 297% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+297%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Wisconsin: up 297% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.9–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.9–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.83.2
20272.51.83.2
20282.51.83.3
20292.61.83.3
20302.61.93.3

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bayfield1620251967
Chaffey1520251966
Mellen1320251998
Land O' Lakes 21320252017
Grand View1220251971
Pigeon Creek1220251999
Eagle River1220251966
Merrill1120251966
Bashaw1120251998
Iron River1020251970
Mather1020231966
Weirgor Springs1020251999
Flambeau1020251998
Shanagolden920251969
Amberg920251980
Cadott920251970
Wausaukee820251980
Amnicon Falls820251998
Minong720251967
Rib Lake720251966
Cavour720251998
Cumberland620251969
Phillips620251970
Hollister620251967
Union Twp520251977

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.