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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Ohio has surged: up 515% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+515%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Ohio: up 515% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.26–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.26–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.230.94
20260.590.230.95
20270.600.240.96
20280.610.250.97
20290.620.260.98

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawnee S.F. 2920192001
Zaleski S.F.820241992
Shawnee S.F.620001992
Tar Hollow420241993
Wayne N.F.320241992
Ray320241992
Pomeroy320191966
Pike S.F.220131992
Wilgus220181995
Bolins Mills220231966
Greasy Ridge219731967
Bloomville120092009
Scioto Trail120131992
Tick Ridge120171993
Mohican S.F.120241992
Wayland120162016
Lenox119811981
No Kenton119941994
Harveysburg 2119991999
Lattasburg119731973
Baxter Ridge120162016
Newcomerstwn119811981
Dresden120241974
South Olive120162003
Smithfield119961966

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.