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Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Georgia has surged: up 485% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+485%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Georgia: up 485% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.40–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.40–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.360.85
20270.610.370.86
20280.620.380.86
20290.630.390.87
20300.640.400.88

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rutledge820251980
Sharon720222018
Sharon 2620252023
Mountain Cty520251975
Carrs Station520252012
Rock Branch520252017
Lincolnton420171992
Deepstep420231976
Boston420051979
Good Hope420252007
Yates Crossroads420252005
Lincolnton 2420252018
Maxeys320241990
Fairplay319831983
Baxter320181975
Curry Hill320192010
Hawkinsville219771977
Bowdon220251980
Tazewell220191977
Juliette220251988
Washington220251975
Barges220162013
Irwinton220252016
Pleasant Hill220252006
Amos Mill220222014

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawareillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.