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Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Georgia has surged: up 428% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+428%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Georgia: up 428% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.38–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.38–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.340.80
20260.580.350.81
20270.590.360.82
20280.600.370.83
20290.610.380.84

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington720241975
Sharon720222018
Mountain Cty520241975
Juliette520241988
Sharon 2520242023
Lincolnton420171992
Deepstep420231976
Boston420051979
Carrs Station420242012
Maxeys320241990
Fairplay319831983
Baxter320181975
Rutledge320241980
Curry Hill320192010
Rock Branch320242017
Whitesburg320241993
Courthouse220091979
Hawkinsville219771977
Ball Ground220212019
Macon219931981
Bowdon220241980
Tazewell220191977
Barges220162013
Yates Crossroads220242005
Amos Mill220222014

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawareillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.