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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Texas has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+153%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Texas: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.22
20270.100.000.22
20280.100.000.22
20290.100.000.22
20300.100.000.22

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian Mtn920241990
Leakey520251997
Liberty Hill420251977
Lydia320251988
Allen Creek320252021
Alexander St320251997
Utopia220231980
Town Bluff220231967
Livingston220231969
Harper220252025
Pidcoke220081996
Pear Valley220252006
Glen Rose220232023
Montell220252005
Wills Point220141994
Whit Mtn.220142011
Hearne120152000
Big Sandy Bith120232023
Dripping Spg120242007
Muldoon120132013
Lone Oak120021999
New Waverly120151970
Oak Grove119831979
Gause119971992
Chandler 2120112011

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.