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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Tennessee has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.85 (95% range 0.36–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.85 (95% range 0.36–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.860.371.4
20270.860.371.4
20280.860.361.3
20290.850.361.3
20300.850.361.3

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mecca820231994
Mcfarland619931967
Elk Valley520251970
Fish Springs520231966
Jasper420251967
Big Sandy320251987
Campbellsville319881979
Tellico320251995
Sweetlips220231971
Silerton220242001
Walland219891966
Cades Cove220191990
Signal Mtn120251979
Tiptonville119691969
Pawpaw119941994
Moscow120242023
Jones Gap120191982
Willis Sprng120231994
Whiteville120221994
Mansfield120241966
Harbuck120121994
Cornpone120241990
Pond Creek119981994
Indian Mound119751969
Collinwood120251966

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.