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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Mississippi has surged: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+270%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Mississippi: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Mississippi is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Mississippi is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.041.0
20270.550.051.0
20280.550.051.1
20290.560.061.1
20300.570.071.1

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corinth820251974
Fayette620071971
Warren Vick520222021
Monticello520162008
Trace Lorman420192016
Holly Springs420242009
Duck Hill320251973
Trace Choctaw320192018
Star320252016
Tchula219701970
Lake Como220151983
Lake220241967
Trace Attala220192018
Tupelo220221985
Scooba219811968
Oak Ridge Vick220192015
Trace South220162010
Weir220252008
Fort Adams219951975
Embry220251988
Lake Mary119901976
Beverly119961966
Dundee120022002
Sandy Creek119991993
Benton119961996

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.