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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Oklahoma has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+319%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Oklahoma: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.561.6
20261.10.571.6
20271.10.591.6
20281.10.601.6
20291.10.611.6

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Cedar1120241967
Heyburn420241992
Ouachita Nf320241991
Noble320241977
Goodwater320191992
Bethel320241993
Mt. Herman320221998
Baron220211969
Holdenville220211978
Matoy219951993
Blanco120161967
Mcalester119911970
Phillips120051981
Mill Creek120121991
Phroso120192016
Ardmore119911970
Wichita Mtns East120152006
Ft Sill West119941994
Canadian120071978
Indianola120241976
Beggs120011967
Choctaw120081967
Verden119981998
Eagle City120022002
Wichita Mts West120162006

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.