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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 527% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+527%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 527% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.4 (95% range 3.3–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.4 (95% range 3.3–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.23.15.3
20274.23.15.3
20284.33.25.4
20294.43.35.5
20304.43.35.5

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nebish2920251982
Jordan2520251993
Bigfork2320251993
Glendale2220251993
Chisholm2020242019
Crane Lake1920251969
Debs1820251970
Hart Lake1720251967
Sherry Lake1720221969
Nett Lake1720242013
Hovland1620251973
Mahtowa1520231993
Tamarac Nwr1420241992
Little Fork1420241969
Sawbill Lndg1320251973
Blackduck1320222004
Cass Lake1120161980
Red Lake1120251993
Floodwood920251968
Cohasset920221973
Cromwell820251967
Backus820251974
Lockport720251967
Brainerd720241993
Wigwam Bay620231971

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.