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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Michigan has surged: up 414% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+414%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Michigan: up 414% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.96–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.96–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.902.6
20271.80.912.7
20281.80.932.7
20291.80.952.7
20301.80.962.7

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ned Lake1220251986
Ontonagon1120191967
Herman1120221983
Bergland1020221982
Marenisco1020191981
Tahquamenon920251974
Harrietta820251990
Crystal Fls720251988
Riggsville720191969
Brocky Lake620251980
Brush Creek620161975
Sidnaw620251993
Maple Grove520251970
Muskallonge520241966
Gilchrist520211974
Hubbard Lake519961975
Gibbs City420251979
Ishpeming420251980
Cunard420211973
Cathro420161972
Hiawatha Nf420251992
Wilson320101966
Pleasant Val319971967
Raco320251971
Pickford320251973

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.