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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+255%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Missouri: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 177% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.32–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+177%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 177% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.32–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.271.3
20260.790.281.3
20270.800.291.3
20280.820.301.3
20290.830.321.3

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade620231979
Williamsvill420241994
Clementine 2420072005
Cassville320221973
Centerville320241997
Bland320191996
Sweden220241978
Pineville220161980
Huntsville220191975
Mincy220242013
Bennett220241994
Hilda220181994
Osage Beach220241997
Pulaski120181987
Peace Valley120121981
Cp Girardeau119901990
Ironton119791974
Akers120231978
Wesco120221973
Clementine120021980
Handley120161986
Graydon120231995
Filley120181981
Reeds119891989
Hayden120071988

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.