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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+156%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Missouri: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 282% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.26–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+282%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±156.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 282% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.26–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.750.221.3
20270.760.231.3
20280.770.241.3
20290.780.251.3
20300.790.261.3

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clementine 2420072005
Bland320191996
Pineville220161980
Huntsville220191975
Mincy220242013
Rueter 2220252023
Hilda220181994
Osage Beach220241997
Palace220252014
Pulaski120181987
Peace Valley120121981
Sweden120251978
Cassville120251973
Cp Girardeau119901990
Cascade120251979
Ironton119791974
Akers120251978
Wesco120221973
Clementine120021980
Handley120161986
Graydon120231995
Filley120181981
Reeds119891989
Hayden120071988
Danville119881988

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.