BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Alabama has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.21–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.21–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.200.88
20270.540.210.88
20280.550.210.88
20290.550.210.89
20300.550.210.89

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carrollton1220251996
Nixburg 2620252001
Millerville520251969
Grove Hill519831983
Blocton420251970
Youngtown420251993
Holt420251994
Borden Sprng419981993
Vina420231996
Sunny Eve320251966
Greensport320251967
Mentone320221993
Wheeler Dam320091993
St Florian220241968
Swaim220192011
Howard220251982
Liberty220181978
Riderwood220231972
Warrior Std220251984
Liberty City 2220252018
Millry219921970
Liberty City220112003
Childersburg219851985
Woodville220242007
Eufaula220242013

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.