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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in South Carolina has surged: up 661% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+661%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in South Carolina: up 661% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.64 (95% range 0.19–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.64 (95% range 0.19–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.161.1
20260.620.171.1
20270.630.181.1
20280.630.181.1
20290.640.191.1

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitmire620242010
Hardeeville419721972
Ridgeway420192010
Little Mtn319831966
Salem Xrd220191983
Battlecreek220242000
Sandhills120242022
Coward119701970
New Holland120011975
Wagener119961987
Bishopville120242024
Landrum119741974
Plum Branch120241977
New Ellenton120222022
Campobello120242024
Lowrys120172017
Blacksburg120122012
Greenwood120191998
Joanna120222000
Mount Pisgah120021998
Bennettsville120142000
Olar120082008
Cauthens Xrd120211982
Prosperity120241992

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.