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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in West Virginia has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has risen sharply in West Virginia: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.5–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.5–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20302.71.53.9

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three Forks1420251971
Strange Crk1320251982
Canaan1120251974
Denmar1120251980
Fayetteville1019961980
Sutton1020251976
Pedro820251979
Hanover820251980
Nicut820251986
Wymer820021997
Ruthbelle720251975
Valley Head620251966
Richwood620251980
Albright619741966
Stollings520211986
Smithfield520251993
Meadowville520251972
Ringgold520252025
Bowden520251993
Bismark520251977
Smoot420251980
Ghent420251978
Welch420251980
Breeden420241986
Hubbardstown420251966

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.