BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in New York has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.66–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.66–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.652.1
20261.40.652.1
20271.40.652.1
20281.40.652.1
20291.40.662.1

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet1820171979
Medusa1120241979
Wanakena1120241980
Philadelphia920241980
Degrasse820241980
Sabattis819831966
Downsville820191982
Petersburg620181966
Mckeever620231975
Blue Ridge S620101969
Warrensburg620191966
Ellenburg620061989
Balmat620081977
S Berne 2620242014
S Berne520121967
Pulaski520241974
Number Four520061971
Oxford419751967
Sciota420061968
Oxford 2420241978
Rifton319861968
Meridale320211967
N Wilmurt319981968
Newcomb320221971
Speculator320241966

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.