BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in New York has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-and-white Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in New York: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.68–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.68–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.672.1
20271.40.682.1
20281.40.682.1
20291.40.682.1
20301.40.682.1

Black-and-white Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet1820171979
Wanakena1320251980
Medusa1120241979
North River1020251966
Degrasse1020251980
Philadelphia1020251980
S Berne 2920252014
Sabattis819831966
Downsville820191982
Petersburg620181966
Mckeever620231975
Blue Ridge S620101969
Warrensburg620191966
Gabriels620251975
Ellenburg620061989
Balmat620081977
S Berne520121967
Number Four520061971
Ogdensburg520251982
Oxford419751967
Parishville420251978
Sciota420061968
Oxford 2420241978
Rifton319861968
Meridale320211967

Black-and-white Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.