BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Piedmont has surged: up 680% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+680%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Piedmont: up 680% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.58–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.58–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.531.0
20270.800.541.1
20280.810.561.1
20290.830.571.1
20300.840.581.1

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RutledgeGEORGIA82025
SharonGEORGIA72022
Plum BranchSOUTH-CAROLINA72025
Nixburg 2ALABAMA62025
Sharon 2GEORGIA62025
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA62024
MannboroVIRGINIA62025
Church RoadVIRGINIA62025
MillervilleALABAMA52025
Carrs StationGEORGIA52025
Rock BranchGEORGIA52025
LincolntonGEORGIA42017
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA42025
Good HopeGEORGIA42025
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA42025
GreenwoodSOUTH-CAROLINA42025
MaxeysGEORGIA32024
FairplayGEORGIA31983
Curry HillGEORGIA32019
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA32025
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA32025
MonticelloNORTH-CAROLINA32008
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA31983
LowrysSOUTH-CAROLINA32025
Liberty CityALABAMA22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.