BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Piedmont has surged: up 581% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+581%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Piedmont: up 581% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.56–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.56–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.510.97
20260.750.530.98
20270.760.540.99
20280.780.551.0
20290.790.561.0

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashingtonGEORGIA72024
SharonGEORGIA72022
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA62024
MannboroVIRGINIA62024
JulietteGEORGIA52024
Sharon 2GEORGIA52024
Liberty City 2ALABAMA42024
LincolntonGEORGIA42017
Carrs StationGEORGIA42024
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA42024
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA42024
RidgewaySOUTH-CAROLINA42019
MillervilleALABAMA32024
MaxeysGEORGIA32024
FairplayGEORGIA31983
RutledgeGEORGIA32024
WhitesburgGEORGIA32024
Curry HillGEORGIA32019
Rock BranchGEORGIA32024
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA32024
MonticelloNORTH-CAROLINA32008
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA31983
Carters Brdg 2VIRGINIA32024
Liberty CityALABAMA22011
Nixburg 2ALABAMA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.