BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.07–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.07–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.141.8
20260.960.121.8
20270.940.101.8
20280.930.091.8
20290.910.071.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT252011
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY212024
TruhartVIRGINIA112024
MatthewsMARYLAND102015
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY102024
PomonaNEW-JERSEY102024
GranbyCONNECTICUT82024
WalkersVIRGINIA82023
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND72018
BrandonVIRGINIA72024
Furnace TownMARYLAND62023
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS62022
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE61998
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY62024
E HartlandCONNECTICUT51992
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT52024
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS52024
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS52024
VillasNEW-JERSEY51981
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND51991
WoodstockCONNECTICUT42007
WillimanticCONNECTICUT42018
BerlinMARYLAND42024
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY42022
Warren 2CONNECTICUT32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.