BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Black-and-white Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.09–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.09–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.161.9
20271.000.141.9
20280.980.131.8
20290.960.111.8
20300.950.091.8

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY262025
WarrenCONNECTICUT252011
PomonaNEW-JERSEY162025
BrandonVIRGINIA122025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS112025
TruhartVIRGINIA112024
MatthewsMARYLAND102015
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY102024
Warren 2CONNECTICUT92025
WalkersVIRGINIA82023
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND72018
GranbyCONNECTICUT62025
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS62025
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS62022
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE61998
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND62025
E HartlandCONNECTICUT51992
VillasNEW-JERSEY51981
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND51991
WoodstockCONNECTICUT42007
WillimanticCONNECTICUT42018
Furnace TownMARYLAND42025
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT32025
Cape NeddickMAINE32008
BerlinMARYLAND32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.