BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Central Hardwoods has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Black-and-white Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.57–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+107%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.57–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.920.531.3
20270.930.541.3
20280.950.551.3
20290.960.561.4
20300.970.571.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozark NfARKANSAS142025
ComptonARKANSAS82022
RupertARKANSAS52024
RudyARKANSAS52025
DixieKENTUCKY51968
Levee 2KENTUCKY52019
MarshallARKANSAS42021
Clementine 2MISSOURI42007
Wheeler DamALABAMA32009
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS32025
BlandMISSOURI32019
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE31988
SwaimALABAMA22019
CourtlandALABAMA21999
LurtonARKANSAS22017
ZionARKANSAS22025
FultonARKANSAS22025
FarwellARKANSAS22018
RussellARKANSAS22019
Clear SpringINDIANA22005
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22002
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY22017
ApexKENTUCKY22008
PinevilleMISSOURI22016
HildaMISSOURI22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.