BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.61–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+127%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.61–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.940.561.3
20260.960.571.3
20270.970.591.4
20280.980.601.4
20290.990.611.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ComptonARKANSAS82022
CascadeMISSOURI62023
RupertARKANSAS52024
RudyARKANSAS52024
DixieKENTUCKY51968
Levee 2KENTUCKY52019
MarshallARKANSAS42021
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS42024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI42024
Clementine 2MISSOURI42007
Wheeler DamALABAMA32009
ZionARKANSAS32024
CassvilleMISSOURI32022
CentervilleMISSOURI32024
BlandMISSOURI32019
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE31988
SwaimALABAMA22019
CourtlandALABAMA21999
LurtonARKANSAS22017
FarwellARKANSAS22018
RussellARKANSAS22019
Ozark NfARKANSAS22024
DelwoodILLINOIS21989
Clear SpringINDIANA22005
HoosierINDIANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.