BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 451% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+451%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 451% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.30–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.30–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.410.280.55
20270.420.280.55
20280.420.290.56
20290.430.290.56
20300.430.300.57

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarrolltonALABAMA122025
CorinthMISSISSIPPI82025
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA82025
FayetteMISSISSIPPI62007
Grove HillALABAMA51983
MonticelloMISSISSIPPI52016
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA52017
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA52006
BloctonALABAMA42025
HoltALABAMA42025
VinaALABAMA42023
DeepstepGEORGIA42023
BostonGEORGIA42005
Holly SpringsMISSISSIPPI42024
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI42019
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA42025
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA42025
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA42025
HardeevilleSOUTH-CAROLINA41972
BranchvilleVIRGINIA42024
NewvilleVIRGINIA42024
Duck HillMISSISSIPPI32025
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI32019
StarMISSISSIPPI32025
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.