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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

13×Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.16–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.16–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.101.3
20260.720.111.3
20270.730.131.3
20280.750.141.4
20290.770.161.4

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian MtnTEXAS92024
LeakeyTEXAS42024
Allen CreekTEXAS42024
UtopiaTEXAS22023
PidcokeTEXAS22008
San SabaTEXAS12024
Dripping SpgTEXAS12024
MontellTEXAS12008
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.