BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 563% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+563%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 563% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Black-and-white Warbler In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.06–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.06–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.050.19
20260.120.050.20
20270.130.050.20
20280.130.060.20
20290.130.060.20

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA52024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA52024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA22003
OkleeMINNESOTA11984
BeltramiMINNESOTA12016
WylieMINNESOTA12024
ErieMINNESOTA12016
GryglaMINNESOTA12010
BadgerMINNESOTA12015
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA12000
MidwayNEBRASKA12021
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA12023
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA11997
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA12023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.