BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 497% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+497%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Black-and-white Warbler In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.06–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.06–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.050.20
20270.130.060.20
20280.130.060.20
20290.130.060.20
20300.130.060.20

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA62025
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22025
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA22003
OkleeMINNESOTA11984
BeltramiMINNESOTA12016
WylieMINNESOTA12024
ErieMINNESOTA12016
GryglaMINNESOTA12010
BadgerMINNESOTA12015
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA12000
MidwayNEBRASKA12021
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA12025
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA11997
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA12023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.