BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 563% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+563%Since 1981
15Routes In Region
44Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 563% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.06–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029
0.13Projected 2029 index
0.06–0.2095% range
±35.3%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.120.050.19
20260.120.050.20
20270.130.050.20
20280.130.060.20
20290.130.060.20

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Potholes.
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA52024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA52024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA22003
OkleeMINNESOTA11984
BeltramiMINNESOTA12016
WylieMINNESOTA12024
ErieMINNESOTA12016
GryglaMINNESOTA12010
BadgerMINNESOTA12015
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA12000
MidwayNEBRASKA12021
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA12023
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA11997
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA12023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.