BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+216%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.13–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.13–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.120.49
20260.310.120.49
20270.310.120.50
20280.310.130.50
20290.320.130.50

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MatherWISCONSIN102023
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN92024
CumberlandWISCONSIN62024
MerrillWISCONSIN62024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA52024
HatfieldWISCONSIN51998
Brook ParkMINNESOTA42024
CadottWISCONSIN42024
UnityWISCONSIN42023
ManawaWISCONSIN42024
GreshamWISCONSIN42024
DresserWISCONSIN32024
SaxevilleWISCONSIN32024
ViroquaWISCONSIN31977
N FreedomWISCONSIN31984
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN22021
BravoMICHIGAN21997
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN22004
MontereyMICHIGAN22023
DeckervilleMICHIGAN22013
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN22010
St StephenMINNESOTA21991
AshbyMINNESOTA22016
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22024
HolwayWISCONSIN21989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.