BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
373Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-and-white Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.62.8
20272.21.62.8
20282.21.62.8
20292.21.62.8
20302.31.72.9

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA222024
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA162025
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA152021
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA142025
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA142025
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA142025
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA142025
Three ForksWEST-VIRGINIA142025
Ltl Pine CrPENNSYLVANIA132025
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA132025
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY122024
MedusaNEW-YORK112024
WatervilleNORTH-CAROLINA112025
LoguePENNSYLVANIA112025
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA112025
CanaanWEST-VIRGINIA112025
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA112025
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA102025
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA102024
FayettevilleWEST-VIRGINIA101996
SuttonWEST-VIRGINIA102025
S Berne 2NEW-YORK92025
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA92025
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO92019
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.