BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
371Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has risen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.62.7
20262.21.62.7
20272.21.62.8
20282.21.62.8
20292.21.62.8

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA222024
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA212024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA202024
FinzelMARYLAND172024
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA162024
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA162024
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA152024
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA152021
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA152024
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA152024
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA142024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY122024
BowdenWEST-VIRGINIA122024
MedusaNEW-YORK112024
OdinPENNSYLVANIA112024
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA112024
Ltl Pine CrPENNSYLVANIA112024
Three ForksWEST-VIRGINIA112024
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA102024
FayettevilleWEST-VIRGINIA101996
SuttonWEST-VIRGINIA102024
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA102024
MeadowvilleWEST-VIRGINIA102024
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA92024
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO92019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.