BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

-7%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±276.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±276.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±276.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.15
20260.040.000.15
20270.040.000.15
20280.040.000.15
20290.040.000.15

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MinneapolisKANSAS12009
JohnstownNEBRASKA12017
NenzelNEBRASKA12021
VerdenOKLAHOMA11998
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA12002
DouglasOKLAHOMA12004
SicklesOKLAHOMA12010
PhrosoOKLAHOMA12019
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA12015
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA11994
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA12016
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA11994
Pear ValleyTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.