BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-and-white Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-and-white Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.02.8
20271.91.02.8
20281.91.02.8
20291.91.12.8
20301.91.12.8

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA282025
NanceARKANSAS182025
CartervilleLOUISIANA131992
WaldronARKANSAS112025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA112024
BlakelyARKANSAS71999
ChathamLOUISIANA61973
MarionLOUISIANA61995
EvelynLOUISIANA62024
Coal HillARKANSAS52023
SpringhillARKANSAS52021
HollywoodARKANSAS42024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS42025
Four LakesARKANSAS42001
LinvilleLOUISIANA42024
Liberty HillTEXAS42025
Locust BayouARKANSAS32023
SimsARKANSAS32025
PrincetonARKANSAS32021
Magazine MtnARKANSAS32025
ClayLOUISIANA32023
Mount UnionLOUISIANA32025
Ivan 2LOUISIANA32016
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA32019
BethelOKLAHOMA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.