BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-and-white Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.0–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.0–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.02.8
20261.91.02.8
20271.91.02.8
20281.91.02.8
20291.91.02.8

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CartervilleLOUISIANA131992
Big CedarOKLAHOMA112024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS82021
BlakelyARKANSAS71999
ChathamLOUISIANA61973
MarionLOUISIANA61995
EvelynLOUISIANA62024
Coal HillARKANSAS52023
SpringhillARKANSAS52021
WomackLOUISIANA52024
HollywoodARKANSAS42024
StarkARKANSAS42024
NanceARKANSAS42024
Four LakesARKANSAS42001
LinvilleLOUISIANA42024
CrossroadsTEXAS42023
Locust BayouARKANSAS32023
SimsARKANSAS32024
PrincetonARKANSAS32021
ClayLOUISIANA32023
Ivan 2LOUISIANA32016
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA32019
BethelOKLAHOMA32024
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA32024
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.